Every month, the National Bank of Poland runs an analysis of four core inflation indicators, which is an important instrument for understanding price dynamics in Poland. The main indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), reflects the average price changes within an extensive market basket of products and services purchased by consumers. However, the process of calculating core inflation indicators requires a detailed analysis of prices in various categories within this market basket. This allows a precise understanding of the causes for inflation, forecasting future inflation trends, and determining the extent to which price increase is permanent or due to short-term, unpredictable factors.
On October 16, 2023, the National Bank of Poland released a statement on core inflation indicators for September 2023. Annual inflation rate:
- Excluding administered prices (subject to government control) stood at 6.8%, down from 8.9% the previous month
- Excluding the most volatile prices reached 10.9%, down from 12.7% the previous month
- Excluding food and energy prices, it was 8.4%, down from 10.0% the previous month
- The 15% average, which eliminates the effect of the 15% of price items with the lowest and highest dynamics, was at 9.3%, down from 11.0% the previous month.
The most commonly used indicator by economists is the core inflation rate, which excludes the prices of food and energy prices. This metric indicator focuses on price trends in areas where the central bank’s monetary policy typically has a greater impact. Energy prices, including fuel prices, are usually determined on global markets and are subject to external influences, including speculation. Food prices, on the other hand, are largely dependent on factors such as weather conditions and the situation in domestic and international markets.
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