EU forecast for Poland: 3.5% economic growth
The European Commission has in its Autumn forecast, estimated that the economic growth in Poland has increased. While the Commission had estimated in the Spring that the economic growth would be 3.3%, its forecast has been adjusted to 3.5%. For the coming year, Brussels expects economic growth of 3.5%. Poland is significantly higher than the EU average: 1.6% in the Euro Zone and 1.9% in the whole of the EU.
In its forecast for Poland, the European Commission assumes that private consumption will continue to increase, due to higher income and a better financial situation for households, as a result of employment and wage growth, as well as low interest rates. The unemployment rate will continue to decline in the coming year in accordance with the EU methodology to 6.8% (according to the Polish calculation methodology it will be higher). The expected inflation rate for this year, -0.6% will indeed change in the coming year to +1.4%, but remains on the model adopted by the National Bank NBP inflation target of 2.5%.
With regards to the deficit of public finances, the European Commission does not expect any dramatic changes, even under the new government. According to the EU forecast, the deficit this year will fall to 2.8% of gross domestic product and will remain at this level in the coming year.
In contrast to the European Commission, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which is an institution of the European Union, lowered its economic forecast for Poland from 3.4% to 3.3%.
Source: Wirtschafts-Markt Polen (November 2015)